My favorite weekend is upon us. Sure, the Super Bowl might have bigger parties and better food, but at least Oscar weekend leads up to a TV show I actually watch for its content and not for the commercials (and I can barely muster even that much these last couple years).For the second year in a row (maybe the third—I can’t remember) I have managed to see all five Best Picture nominees, and then some. I feel quite the informed Oscars viewer—at least in that final category—which leads me this year to hazard the making some actual predictions…plus a lot of guesses in all the other categories. I copied this list of nominees from the Oscars.com page. I’ll skip the documentary and foreign film categories since in those instances I definitely won’t know what I’m talking about. Sorry about the length, but I love talking about film.
Lights, camera, blockquote, as they say in the biz…
MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE
I have to confess the only movie I saw in this category was The Passion of the Christ, thus it gets my pick if only for the poor guy who had to paint the intricate webwork of bloody lashes on Jesus’s back every day.
COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY
This category always bothers me. Too often they just give it to the person who had to make the most costumes. And too often they award movies whose design is based on the historical record of photographs and catalog ads. That hardly sounds like “design” to me. That’s why I was so pleased when Ngila Dickson won the award last year for her inventive costumes for The Lord of the Rings, where she and Richard Taylor had to invent the look of everything themselves and, pun intend, create it out of whole cloth. That said, I suppose I should be picking A Series of Unfortunate Events, but I bet it goes to Aviator.
VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2
I can’t decide whether the Academy will go for Azkaban or the flashier though cartoonish effects of Spider-Man 2. I didn’t see I, Robot because the effects looked so crappy, but I’m told they came off well after all. However, the effects in Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow are so superior that I am very upset it was ignored in this category.
ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
A Series of Unfortunate Events had the most inventive look, but maybe it’s too reminiscent of old Tim Burton movies. I have a hunch they’ll give it to Phantom of the Opera.
FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
I found it interesting that my dad made a point to comment on the editing in Finding Neverland. That said, I still feel Thelma Schoonmaker will win for Aviator, if only because she’s so well respected.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
Maybe the Academy will be impressed with how the makers of The Aviator used the art of cinematography to set the time and tell their story (hence the blue golf course), but I have a feeling The Passion will get it.
MUSIC (SONG)
“Accidentally In Love” – SHREK 2
“Al otro lado del río” – THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
“Believe” – THE POLAR EXPRESS
“Learn To Be Lonely” – THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
“Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)” – THE CHORUS
I seriously do not give a shit.
Give the award out before the telecast and announce it during a commercial bump like a Grammy award. The East Coast will thank you.
MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE
I find it difficult to care since Edward Shearmur’s score for Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow was inexplicably slighted. I have a feeling the award will go to John Debney for The Passion…which is a shame since I’ve always considered it a rip-off of Peter Gabriel’s score for The Last Temptation of [the] Christ.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS
My money’s on Sideways. The movie is so rich with dialogue that it would be a shame if it does not win.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE
One of those categories where I wouldn’t mind which wins; but I have a hunch Charlie Kaufman’s inventive Spotless Mind will win
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2
I am a card-carrying Pixar disciple. That Dreamworks crap is for poseurs.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney – KINSEY
Virginia Madsen – SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo – HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman – CLOSER
I’d vote for a belated honorary Oscar for Virginia Madsen’s shower scene in Creator, but the big award goes to Cate Blanchett’s vibrant turn as Katharine Hepburn.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening – BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno – MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton – VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet – ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
I know there are some who think Hilary Swank is too young to be getting two Best Actress Oscars but I thought she was excellent in Million Dollar Baby. She played every scene perfectly and she can throw a mean punch.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda – THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church – SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx – COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen – CLOSER
I’m really not sure about this one. My money’s on Morgan Freeman though, just for being Morgan Freeman.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle – HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp – FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio – THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx – RAY
Jamie Foxx does an amazing job of playing Ray Charles, but halfway through the movie I got the feeling I was watching a really long SNL skit. Is it really worth getting an award for doing a prolonged impersonation? I’d like to see Don Cheadle win this one. His performance in Hotel Rwanda is more subdued, granted, but an Oscar win would bring more attention to this important movie—and Don Cheadle is always good and worth the recognition. Still, Jamie Foxx will win.
DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese – THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Taylor Hackford – RAY
Alexander Payne – SIDEWAYS
Mike Leigh – VERA DRAKE
At long last Martin Scorsese should get the Oscar he deserves. However, Clint Eastwood shows up and spoils everything. The Academy will want to honor both men, so I’m predicting Clint will get the directing award while…
BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
…Mr Scorsese will have to settle for watching his producers accept the grand prize.
Having seen all five nominees I have to reassess my complaint about this being a lackluster year. True, there was no huge movie to rally behind and breathlessly await its DVD release, but all five pictures were well-done and interesting and watchable. Unlike some years, they are all worthy. My dad and my friend Schmoe both love Finding Neverland. My boss was very impressed with Million Dollar Baby. Sideways has great dialogue but it seems too slight (and, having said that, too long) to muscle its way past the others to the podium. Ray is most noted for Jamie Foxx’s performance, and the movie is not helped by too much of a resemblance to the almost clichéd Behind the Music arc. I think The Aviator will get it. It was the first of the nominees I saw and I’m sticking with it. It’s the kind of prestigious bio-pic that the Academy loves to reward, it’s directed by the lauded Martin Scorsese, and the movie even celebrates old Hollywood. Seems like a natural. And it doesn’t hurt that it’s a very good movie.
